Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Who'll Win?

There is a lot of hub-bub about the upcoming presidential election and who is a shoe-in, who is unelectable etc. etc.

Now I don't have any idea who will ultimately win but history does provide a small clue.

There is something that I think is every bit as important as the issues, partisan politics etc and that is the "common man" vote.

The candidate who can at least appear to empathize with the common man will almost always win. The candidate who comes across as believing themselves to be better than the ordinary man (or woman) will not win.

I suppose all presidential candidates are snobs at least on some level. (I mean who would try for the presidency without a little bit of an ego?) However the one who can either hide it or in whom it is a secondary character trait has an edge going into the election.

A big part of electability is likability. A person isn't going to vote for someone they dislike or someone they believe considers themselves better than or above the average voter. To win they must either be or know how to act like an ordinary person, the person you would want for a neighbor.


Blogger Dee said...

I think you are right on all counts which means, IMHO, if either Fred or Rudy get the nomination they should be able to beat Hillary. Thats Hillary's biggest downfall, 52% of the American people already can't stand her.

11:11 PM  
Blogger Patrick Joubert Conlon said...

Maybe but a lot of aristocrats have won too - the Roosevelts, the Bushes. Funny how BJ Clinton had the common touch but Hillary does not.

12:45 AM  
Blogger shoprat said...

pjc you're right but Bush and Roosevelt both had at least some idea of how to connect to the ordinary man. Compare the old images of "W" building a fence at his ranch vs Kerry's obviously condescending attempt to go deer hunting in Ohio. Both were political photo-ops yet one worked and the other didn't. Probably because Bush understands "the little people" a little better than Kerry does.

2:19 PM  
Blogger Steven said...

Still going with what I've said before, hitlery is not electable. Of course the old media will orchestrate her coronation and proclaim her to be the rightful heir. Just wait until next November draws close, there'll be so much dirt on her, you'd be able to grow taters. My choice at this point would be Mitt Romney

6:44 PM  
Blogger Gayle said...

Whenever Hillary speaks she almost always makes the statement that says she is speaking for the "American People". HA! But the way she says it is with so much arrogance she may as well be talking about her household pets. Arrogance always shows through their phony smiles.

Romney is looking better to me too. I heard on O'Reilly that Gingrich may be running if he can raise enough money. Things are going to get very interesting next year.

11:48 AM  
Blogger James said...

After living on this earth for 60 years, I've finally reached the point where there is no one worth voting for. Those in government have one goal; that is to do or say whatever they think will keep them in power.A Republic without morality cannot stand and one thing we have for sure is a government with no morals.

12:59 AM  

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